Are home prices predicted to continue to rise?

Where are Home Values Headed over the Next Few Years?

from Keeping Current Matters: Thursday October 25th, 2018  For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Pricing

There are many questions about where home prices will be next year as well as where they may be headed over the next several years to come. We have gathered the most reliable sources to help answer these questions:

Zelman & Associates – The firm leverages unparalleled housing market expertise, extensive surveys of industry executives, and rigorous financial analysis to deliver proprietary research and advice to leading global institutional investors and senior-level company executives.

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) – As the leading advocate for the real estate finance industry, the MBA enables members to successfully deliver fair, sustainable, and responsible real estate financing within ever-changing business environments.

Freddie Mac – An organization whose mission is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. housing market in all economic conditions extending to all communities from coast to coast.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) – The largest association of real estate professionals in the world.

Fannie Mae – A leading source of financing for mortgage lenders, providing access to affordable mortgage financing in all markets always.

Here are their projections of prices going forward:

Bottom Line

Every source sees home prices continuing to appreciate – just at lower percentages as we move through the next several years.

The Buck Stops Here!

This guy was outside one of our bedroom windows this morning.  Back when I lived in Hawaii we used to be visited by wild boar. They would come down the mountain and eat mangos as they ripened and dropped to the ground. We thought it was fun at first, until a group of them decided to stick around the neighborhood.  Pigs can be VERY destructive.  With the deer here in Corvallis you have to be careful to fence off your garden or plant deer-safe flowers and shrubs, but otherwise they aren't as problematic as having a group of wild pigs hanging around.

Later,   

Steve

Here's some information on home buying....

Buying a Home Can Be Scary… Until You Know the Facts [INFOGRAPHIC] 

from Keeping Current Matters: Friday October 26th, 2018  Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Infographics

Some Highlights:

Many potential homebuyers believe that they need a 20% down payment and a 780 FICO® score to qualify to buy a home which stops many of them from even trying! Here are some facts:

• 72% of buyers who purchased homes this year have put down less than 20%.
• 76.4% of loan applications were approved last month.
• The average credit score of approved loans was 727 in September.

Click here to visit Corvallis Real Estate agent Steve Frisbie"s website.

Oregon State Basketball season is approaching....

I went to the intra-squad scrimmage on Tuesday evening to watch the mix of new and returning players play ball.

Saturday at 5pm they 'll be back in Gill Coliseum to put on an exhibition game against Montana Tech.

I'm looking forward to this upcoming season.  My guess is, barring injury, it'll be the deepest/strongest Beaver basketball team they've had in a while.

The trees are coloring up nicely in Corvallis...

Here's a shot from this morning.  I like how one side of the street has started while the other side is still green.  These particular trees will go to a bright yellow  next.

  Steve

Here's some tips for getting your house ready to go on the market....

20 Tips for Preparing Your House for Sale This Fall [INFOGRAPHIC] 

from Keeping Current Matters: Friday October 19th, 2018  For Sellers, Infographiccs

Some Highlights:

• When listing your house for sale, your top goal will be to get the home sold for the best price possible!
• There are many small projects that you can do to ensure this happens!
• Your real estate agent will have a list of specific suggestions for getting your house ready for market and is a great resource for finding local contractors who can help!

Corvallis Realtor Steve Frisbie

Inventories of homes for sale are finally going up....

Search Corvallis and Albany real estate here!

Is the Increase in Inventory a Bullish or Bearish Sign for Real Estate?

 from Keeping Current Matters: Thursday October 18th, 2018  First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Housing Market Updates,Move-Up Buy

In a recent article, National Housing Inventory Crisis Reaches Inflection Point, realtor.com reported that:

1. New listings jumped 8% year-over-year nationally, the largest increase since 2013
2. Total listings in the 45 largest markets are now up 6% on average over last year

This increase in housing inventory has sparked two different reactions. Some are saying this is the first sign of a potential collapse while others are saying it is a welcomed reprieve from the lack of inventory that has stalled the market recently. As Zelman & Associates reported in a recent ‘Z Report’:

“With the rate of home price appreciation starting to decelerate alongside the uptick in inventory, we expect significant debate whether this is a bullish or bearish sign

Is this a sign the market might crash?

There are those who look at the increase in inventory as a sign that we are returning to the market we saw last decade. However, a closer look shows that we are nowhere near the levels of inventory we reached before the crash in 2008.

A normal market would have about 6-months inventory, but the latest Existing Home Sales Reportissued by the National Association of Realtors revealed that:

“Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace up from 4.1 months a year ago.”

A decade ago, prices began to rapidly depreciate in June 2007. At that time, we had a 9.1-month supply (more than double what it is today) and inventory kept rising until it hit a peak of 11.1 months in April of 2008.

With the current levels of buyer demand, any such increase in months supply is highly unlikely. As Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s Chief Economist explains:

 “After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September’s almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market. Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize. But don’t expect the level to jump dramatically.

Plenty of buyers in the market are scooping up homes as soon as they’re listed, which will keep national increases relatively small for the time being.”

What will be the result of the increase in inventory?

The increase in inventory will allow many families who had been unable to find a home to finally become homeowners. Again, we quote from the ‘Z Report’:

“In our view, the short-term narrative will probably be confusing, but more sustainable growth and affordability will likely be the end result.”

Bottom Line

If you are either a first-time or second-time buyer who has given up, let’s get together discuss the inventory available in our market.

Getting ready to go house hunting? Here's some things to do as you get started...

5 Tips for Starting Your Home Search

 from Keeping Current Matters:Wednesday October 17th, 2018  First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers

In today’s real estate market, with low inventory dominating the conversation in many areas of the country, it can often be frustrating to be a first-time homebuyer if you aren’t prepared.

In a recent realtor.com article entitled, “How to Find Your Dream Home—Without Losing Your Mind,”the author highlights some steps that first-time homebuyers can take to help carry their excitement of buying a home throughout the whole process.

1. Get Pre-Approved for a Mortgage Before You Start Your Search

One way to show you are serious about buying your dream home is to get pre-qualified or pre-approved for a mortgage before starting your search. Even if you are in a market that is not as competitive, understanding your budget will give you the confidence of knowing whether or not your dream home is within your reach.

This step will also help you narrow your search based on your budget and won’t leave you disappointed if the home you tour, and love, ends up being outside your budget!

2. Know the Difference Between Your ‘Must-Haves’ and ‘Would-Like-To-Haves’

Do you really need that farmhouse sink in the kitchen to be happy with your home choice? Would a two-car garage be a convenience or a necessity? Could the ‘man cave’ of your dreams be a future renovation project instead of a make-or-break right now?

Before you start your search, list all the features of a home you would like and then qualify them as ‘must-haves’, ‘should-haves’, or ‘absolute-wish list’ items. This will help keep you focused on what’s most important.

3. Research and Choose a Neighborhood You Want to Live In

Every neighborhood has its own charm. Before you commit to a home based solely on the house itself, the article suggests test-driving the area. Make sure that the area meets your needs for “amenities, commute, school district, etc. and then spend a weekend exploring before you commit.”

4. Pick a House Style You Love and Stick to It

Evaluate your family’s needs and settle on a style of home that would best serve those needs. Just because you’ve narrowed your search to a zip code, doesn’t mean that you need to tour every listing in that zip code.

An example from the article says, “if you have several younger kids and don’t want your bedroom on a different level, steer clear of Cape Cod–style homes, which typically feature two or more bedrooms on the upper level and the master on the main.”

5. Document Your Home Visits

Once you start touring homes, the features of each individual home will start to blur together. The article suggests keeping your camera handy and documenting what you love and don’t love about each property you visit. They even go as far as to suggest snapping a photo of the ‘for sale’ sign on the way into the property to help keep the listings divided in your photo gallery.

Making notes on the listing sheet as you tour the property will also help you remember what the photos mean, or what you were feeling while touring the home.

Bottom Line

In a high-paced, competitive environment, any advantage you can give yourself will help you on your path to buying your dream home.

Search real estate in the Willamette Valley here- Corvallis, Albany, Salem and the surrounding area.

We've had some gorgeous fall days in Corvallis lately...

It's been bright and sunny with crisp cool mornings.  The trees are beginning to turn bright colors all over town. We've had a bumper crop of acorns rolling down the roof of our home this year... I love this time of year!

Here's a quick pic of the Chip Ross Park area from the top of 29th.

  Later,

     Steve

Loan pre-approval is practically a must these days before home shopping....

Pre-Approval: Your 1st Step in Buying a Home

 from Keeping Current Matters: 

Monday October 15th, 2018  Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Move-Up Buyers

In many markets across the country, the number of buyers searching for their dream homes outnumbers the number of homes for sale. This has led to a competitive marketplace where buyers often need to stand out. One way to show you are serious about buying your dream home is to get pre-qualified or pre-approved for a mortgage before starting your search.

Even if you are in a market that is not as competitive, understanding your budget will give you the confidence of knowing if your dream home is within your reach.

Freddie Mac lays out the advantages of pre-approval in the ‘My Home’ section of their website:

“It’s highly recommended that you work with your lender to get pre-approved before you begin house hunting. Pre-approval will tell you how much home you can afford and can help you move faster, and with greater confidence, in competitive markets.”

One of the many advantages of working with a local real estate professional is that many have relationships with lenders who will be able to help you through this process. Once you have selected a lender, you will need to fill out their loan application and provide them with important information regarding “your credit, debt, work history, down payment and residential history.”

Freddie Mac describes the ‘4 Cs’ that help determine the amount you will be qualified to borrow:

1. Capacity: Your current and future ability to make your payments
2. Capital or cash reserves: The money, savings, and investments you have that can be sold quickly for cash
3. Collateral: The home, or type of home, that you would like to purchase
4. Credit: Your history of paying bills and other debts on time

Getting pre-approved is one of many steps that will show home sellers that you are serious about buying, and it often helps speed up the process once your offer has been accepted.

Bottom Line

Many potential homebuyers overestimate the down payment and credit scores necessary to qualify for a mortgage today. If you are ready and willing to buy, you may be pleasantly surprised at your ability to do so.

Search active Oregon home listings in Corvallis, Albany, Philomath, Salem, Lebanon, Monmouth and the surrounding area here

OK, so this post is a couple months late, but some of these are still doable....

• 

  You'll Be Glad You Did These 4 August Tasks When January Comes

  Go ahead and get that energy audit. And schedule snow plowing. Read

Visit houselogic.com for more articles like this.

Copyright 2018 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Here's some common real estate terms....

Buying a Home? Do You Know the Lingo? [INFOGRAPHIC]

from Keeping Current Matters: Friday October 12th, 2018  First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Infographics, Move-Up Buyers

Some Highlights:

• Buying a home can be intimidating if you are not familiar with the terms used during the process.
• To start you on your path with confidence, we have compiled a list of some of the most common terms used when buying a home.
• The best way to ensure that your home-buying process is a confident one is to find a real estate professional who not only puts your family’s needs first, but will guide you through every aspect of the transaction with ‘the heart of a teacher.’

Low mortgage rates have helped keep homes more affordable than many think....

Dispelling the Myth About Home Affordability

 from Keeping Current Matters:Thursday October 11th, 2018  Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers,Housing Market Update

We have all seen the headlines that report that buying a home is less affordable today than it was at any other time in the last ten years, and those headlines are accurate. But, have you ever wondered why the headlines don’t say the last 25 years, the last 20 years, or even the last 11 years?

The reason is that homes were less affordable 25, 20, or even 11 years ago than they are today.

Obviously, buying a home is more expensive now than during the ten years immediately following one of the worst housing crashes in American history.

Over the past decade, the market was flooded with distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) that were selling at 10-50% discounts. There were so many distressed properties that the prices of non-distressed properties in the same neighborhoods were lowered and mortgage rates were kept low to help the economy.

Low Prices + Low Mortgage Rates = High Affordability

Prices have since recovered and mortgage rates have increased as the economy has gained strength. This has and will continue to impact housing affordability moving forward.

However, let’s give affordability some historical context. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issues their Affordability Index each month. According to NAR:

“The Monthly Housing Affordability Index measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent monthly price and income data.”

NAR’s current index stands at 138.8. The index had been higher each of the last ten years, peaking at 197 in 2012 (the higher the index the more affordable houses are).

But, the average index between 1990 and 2007 was just 123 and there were no years with an index above 133. That means that homes are more affordable today than at any time during the eighteen years between 1990 and 2007.

Bottom Line

With home prices continuing to appreciate and mortgage rates increasing, home affordability will likely continue to slide. However, this does not mean that buying a house is not an attainable goal in most markets as it is less expensive today than during the eighteen-year stretch immediately preceding the housing bubble and crash.

Buy vs. Rent... Can you be better off by paying a lower down payment and NOT saving for a larger down payment?? Here's some thoughts....

Realtors often hear "I'm saving up for my down payment, we're a few years away".  Keep in mind the phrase "there's more than one way to skin a cat", and with financing home purcahses that often is true as well.

The following article uses a 250K home purchase and runs some of the numbers to give you an example of what can happen. Keep in mind, not all type of loans are exactly the same, and the numbers may or may not work for you, so it's always a great idea to get in contact with a couple of different loan officers and types of lending institutions to have them run the numbers for you when you start thinking about purchasing a home.

 You just may find that you might be able to get into a new home sooner than you think, and at the very least you will come out more informed and have a better idea of what you need to do to make the purchase of a home happen for you.

The Cost of NOT Paying PMI

from Keeping Current Matters: Wednesday September 26th, 2018  Buying Myths, Down Payments, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Move-Up Buyer

Saving for a down payment is often the biggest hurdle for a first-time homebuyer as median incomes, rents, and home prices all vary depending on where you live.

There is a common misconception among homebuyers that a 20% down payment is required, and it is this limiting belief that often adds months, and sometimes even years, to the home-buying process.

So, if you can purchase a home with less than a 20% down payment… why aren’t more people doing just that?

One Possible Answer: Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)

Freddie Mac defines PMI as:

“An insurance policy that protects the lender if you are unable to pay your mortgage. It’s a monthly fee, rolled into your mortgage payment, that is required for all conforming, conventional loans that have down payments less than 20%.

Once you’ve built equity of 20% in your home, you can cancel your PMI and remove that expense from your mortgage payment.”

As the borrower, you pay the monthly premiums for the insurance policy, and the lender is the beneficiary. The monthly cost of your PMI depends on the home’s value, the amount of your down payment, and your credit score.

Below is a table showing the difference in monthly mortgage payment for a $250,000 home with a 3% down payment and PMI vs. a 20% down payment without PMI:

The first thing you see when looking at the table above is no doubt the added $320 a month that you would be spending on your monthly mortgage cost. The second thing that should stand out is that a 20% down payment is $50,000!

If you are buying your first home, $50,000 is a large sum of money that takes discipline and sacrifice to save. Many first-time buyers save for 5-10 years before buying their homes.

To save $50,000 in 10 years, you would need to save about $420 a month. On the other hand, if you save that same $420 a month, you could afford a 3% down payment in less than a year and a half.

In a recent article by My Mortgage Insider, they explain what could happen in the market while you are waiting to save for a higher down payment:

“The time it takes to save a (larger) down payment could mean higher home prices and tougher qualifying down the road. For many buyers, it could prove much cheaper and quicker to opt for the 3% down mortgage immediately.”

The article went on to say,

“Since renters typically devote a higher percentage of their income to housing than homeowners, providing flexible down payment options can help renters with solid earnings purchase a home – and gain a fixed-rate mortgage with principal and interest payments that will not increase over the life of the loan.”

If the prospect of having to pay PMI is holding you back from buying a home today, Freddie Mac has this advice,

“It’s no doubt an added cost, but it’s enabling you to buy now and begin building equity versus waiting 5 to 10 years to build enough savings for a 20% down payment.”

Based on results of the most recent Home Price Expectation Survey, a homeowner who purchased a $250,000 home in January would gain $50,000 in equity over the next five years based on home price appreciation alone (shown below).

Bottom Line

If you have questions about whether you should buy now or wait until you’ve saved a larger down payment, let’s get together to discuss our market’s conditions and help you make the best decision for you and your family.

Corvallis real estate agent Steve Frisbie

Nationally, new home sales seems to be rising....

New Home Sales Up 12.7% From Last Year

 Wednesday October 10th, 2018  First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Move-Up Buyers, New Construction, Pricing

According to the latest New Residential Sales Report from the Census Bureau, new construction sales in August were up 3.5% from July and 12.7% from last year! This marks the second consecutive month with double-digit year-over-year growth (12.8% in July).

The report also showed that builders have ramped up construction with an increase in new construction starts and completions. The summer months are often a busy time for builders as they capitalize on the warmer weather to be able to finish projects.

Below is a table showing the change in starts, completions, and sales from last August.

Other notable news from the report is that the percentage of new construction sales in the $200-$299k range has continued to break away from the $300-$399k range.

This shows that builders are starting to build lower-priced homes that will help alleviate some of the inventory challenges in the starter and trade-up home categories. The chart below shows the full breakdown.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

If you are thinking of buying or selling in today’s market, you no doubt have heard that there is a shortage of existing homes for sale which has been driving home prices up across the country. The additional new construction coming to the market could help alleviate this shortage, but we are still not back up to pre-crisis levels.